Two demographers from the University of Cape Town (UCT) have identified significant issues and expressed concerns about the reliability of the 2022 population census.
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Professor Tom Moultrie and Emeritus Professor Rob Dorrington from UCT’s Centre for Actuarial Research (CARe) stated that the census had an undercount as high as 31%, the highest they had ever seen globally.
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‘Despite adjustments made for the undercount, the census results, released in October 2023, show numerous anomalies, making them more estimations than exact counts,’ they said.
These anomalies challenge not only the accuracy of the census data but also their utility for critical functions such as resource allocation, investment planning, and public policy decision-making, potentially leading to misallocation of resources and ineffective policies.
Their findings suggest the national population, after adjusting for the undercount, may have been overestimated by about one million people or nearly 2%.
‘Significant overestimates exist in the Indian/Asian and white population groups, with undercounts exceeding 60%. A marked undercount of children aged five remains, even after adjustments. Inconsistencies are found in national and provincial population estimates by age, sex, and population group,’ they noted.
The researchers added, ‘Discrepancies exist in population estimates at district and municipal levels compared to other data sources, including mid-year population estimates and voter rolls from local government elections. Anomalies in adjustments for the undercount imply a false sense of certainty in the final population estimates.’
However, Statistics SA refuted the CARe report as unfounded and misleading.
‘Stats SA is dedicated to upholding standards of data accuracy ensured by quality checks at every stage of the census process from data collection to fieldwork monitoring,’ it said.
‘The Post Enumeration Survey (PES) is a quality control measure consistently applied in all democratic censuses.’
According to the 2022 PES data, the estimated South African population, including those in collective living quarters, transients, and the homeless, was 62.0 million persons on the Census 2022.
Darren Bergman, a DA member of the portfolio committee on planning, monitoring, and evaluation, stated that the supposed undercount affected planning widely and could not be relied on when delivering services.
‘We just debated Statistics SA today. I have raised concerns around the 19.4% vacancies, the 30% budget cut, and the fact that in casual focus groups it has been noted that people were not approached for the Census,’ he added.
‘We have expressed major doubt at the reliability of the Census data and called for automation and advancement in turn-around times.’
‘It is doing no department any justice to rely on delayed data, non-transparent procedures, and reports not reaching the relevant ministries for serious reflection. We have called for Statistics SA to provide a proper presentation to our committee soon to address our concerns.’
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