South Africans should prepare for increasingly unpredictable and severe weather in the coming years, experts have cautioned.
Also read: LIVE: Relentless weather wreaks havoc across the Western Cape
Heavy rainfall in the Western Cape, while not unusual, has intensified over the years due to climate change.
Recent deluges have caused widespread havoc, flooding roads and homes, uprooting trees, blowing away structures, and displacing hundreds of residents.
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Dr Robyn Pharoah, a senior researcher at the Research Alliance for Disaster and Risk Reduction at Stellenbosch University, attributes the heavy rainfall to cut-off lows.
He explains, ‘The piece that is cut-off loses momentum and stops moving or moves very slowly. This means that, instead of dropping its rain and moving off, it just hangs over an area and continues to drop its rain. This is why it is a problem because storms go on for much longer than they would normally—resulting in flooding.’
Pharoah noted that while this type of weather isn’t particularly unusual, the amount of rainfall has been significant.
The province has experienced similar floods in the past, notably in 2004, which led to the development of the Disaster Management Act. He emphasised that such events are expected to become more frequent due to climate change.
‘The weather seems to be getting wilder in the Western Cape, with some surprisingly warm weather this winter and a number of big storms and floods in quick succession since 2021,’ he said.
‘We had major flooding in the Garden Route in 2021, and two classified flood disasters last year, primarily affecting the West Coast and Overberg. Oudtshoorn and George saw flooding a few weeks ago, and Cape Town experienced flooding in April.’
Roelof Burger, a professor of atmospheric science at North West University, pointed out the quick succession of weather systems moving over the area.
‘After heavy early rains, the soil moisture of the whole area is saturated, and rivers are in full flow. What is significant is that we have had a series of these cold fronts in a short space of time, each one bringing rain,’ he said.
‘Looking ahead to the coming two weeks, there may be 100-200mm of rain in some places of the catchments.’
While the rain benefits Western Cape dams, Burger warned it also poses risks of flooding, displacement and infrastructure damage due to high surface runoff during these events.
Reflecting on the severe droughts of 2018 and the looming threat of ‘Day Zero’ for Cape Town, Burger noted, ‘Any thinking person will think that, in isolation, any of these events don’t seem so ‘out of the ordinary.
‘But putting them together tells a picture that the frequency of extreme events seems to be on the increase. So, while we should not blame climate change for every little event, it seems to play a significant role in the frequency and intensity of these weather events.’
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