Eskom’s power generation fleet is achieving unprecedented performance, leading the utility to place several units on cold reserve as a result of surplus capacity, Cape {town} Etc reports.
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According to the Sunday Times, Eskom head of generation Bheki Nxumalo explains that the utility often shuts down its most expensive, older units for a few days when demand is low, saving money and resources.
However, the reliability of restarting these units also factors into the decision.
Nxumalo noted that placing units on cold reserve is a routine practice for large power systems and requires careful planning.
Eskom forecasts electricity demand up to 18 months ahead to manage this process.
‘Based on this, planned maintenance of generators is scheduled for periods of lower demand after ensuring there are sufficient operating reserves to cater for short-term generator breakdowns,’ Sunday Times quoted Nxumalo as saying.
Restarting units can take up to 72 hours, so Eskom avoids putting too many units on cold reserve at once to ensure adequate power for restarts.
In late July, Eskom generated over 35 000MW daily, exceeding peak demand by 3000MW, a level last seen in July 2018.
Nxumalo highlighted that fixing existing generation assets has saved money compared to new capacity, with capacity losses dropping below 9000MW, about 7000MW less than in 2023.
Adding new capacity would cost around R100 billion, making repairs a more cost-effective option.
Nxumalo added that Medupi and Kusile, once among Eskom’s most problematic power stations, are now its top performers.
South African National Energy Development Institute’s Professor Sampson Mamphweli believes load-shedding could end by year’s end due to improved energy availability, fewer breakdowns, and reduced demand.
‘I am very much optimistic that we may be able to continue to sustain this until we start the beginning of summer, and if we go through the beginning of summer without load-shedding, we might see the end of load-shedding.’
He’s confident the government will end load-shedding between November and December 2024.
Electricity and energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa noted that Eskom’s improved performance, leading to a load-shedding break since 26 March 2024, is sustainable.
‘Since the beginning of this year, Eskom’s plant availability has been trending upwards, supported by a decrease in unplanned losses,’ said Ramokgopa.
‘All indications suggest that this performance trajectory is sustainable.’
He added that the government is enhancing the coal fleet with new generation capacity, including converting open-cycle gas turbines to gas and closed-cycle systems.
Ramokgopa said Eskom’s fleet is performing much more reliably heading into summer 2024, with unplanned losses kept below 14 000MW during winter, allowing for additional short-term planned maintenance.
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Picture: Gallo